Nobody knows, and we won’t pretend to. The one Oakley-level forecast we found, Zillow’s with a base date of August 31, 2026, has home values in ZIP 94561 up 0.9% by August 2027, while the actual Oakley median sale price was down 1.1% over the year to August 2026 (Zillow Research, downloaded September 25, 2026; Redfin, Oakley housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026).
A forecast under 1% is basically a coin flip with a lean. Here is what each named forecaster says, what really happened in Oakley, and how to use it for your own move.
Which way have Oakley prices moved this year?
Slightly down from a year ago. The median sale price was $675,553 in August 2026, down 1.1% from August 2025, and 33.0% of homes cut their price before selling (Redfin, Oakley housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026). The full breakdown of what homes cost today is on our Oakley home prices page. This page is about where prices could go.
The trend signal worth watching is pace. Oakley’s 41 median days on market was the longest of the East County cities in the same Redfin file: Antioch 21, Pittsburg 23, Brentwood 30 and Discovery Bay 34.
One month and 113 sales is a small sample. A few more new-construction closings or a few more older resale homes can move the median on their own.
What does Zillow forecast for Oakley?
Nearly flat. Zillow’s Home Value Forecast by ZIP code, base date August 31, 2026, shows these changes for Oakley’s ZIP 94561 (Zillow Research, Zillow Home Value Forecast, ZIP and metro files, downloaded September 25, 2026):
| Period | Oakley, ZIP 94561 | San Francisco metro | United States |
|---|---|---|---|
| By September 30, 2026 | up 0.2% | up 0.4% | up 0.2% |
| By November 30, 2026 | up 0.4% | up 0.9% | up 0.6% |
| By August 31, 2027 | up 0.9% | up 1.4% | up 1.4% |
Two cautions. Zillow forecasts its own home value index, not sale prices, so it won’t match Redfin’s median. And Zillow puts Oakley below both the metro and the country. That’s a model’s output, not a verdict on any one street.
What do statewide and national forecasters say?
Small gains, from forecasters who don’t look at Oakley at all.
- C.A.R. Its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, released September 17, 2025, called for a statewide median of $905,000 in 2026, up 3.6%, and existing single-family sales of 274,400, up 2% (C.A.R., checked September 25, 2026). As of September 25, 2026, C.A.R. had not posted a 2027 forecast.
- Fannie Mae. Its Economic and Strategic Research group’s September 2026 Housing Forecast, dated September 11, 2026, shows its national home price index up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, fourth quarter to fourth quarter. It puts the 30-year fixed rate at an average of 6.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027 (Fannie Mae, Housing Forecast: September 2026, checked September 25, 2026). Fannie Mae updates its price forecast each January, April, July and October.
Statewide and national numbers can move one way while one East County city moves the other. Oakley’s own trend this year proves it.
How close did last year’s forecast come?
Closer on price than it looks, but the path was flat. C.A.R. called for a $905,000 statewide median in 2026. Its August 2026 report put the statewide median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from August 2025, and noted that prices usually ease in fall and winter (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026). For Contra Costa County, C.A.R. had the August 2026 single-family median at $875,000, up 2.9% from a year earlier.
So the state landed near the forecast level while the county gained and Oakley slipped. Forecasts are often wrong, and even a good statewide call can miss your city.
What could move Oakley prices from here?
Nobody can time these, but here’s what to watch, all things you can check yourself:
- Mortgage rates. C.A.R. says the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.67% in August 2026 and topped 7% in the second week of September, citing Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily (C.A.R., August 2026 report).
- Inventory. In Contra Costa, C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index was 2.7 months in August 2026, against 3.1 a year earlier (same report).
- New homes. The city’s Current Projects page lists 443 lots in six Summer Lake North vesting tentative maps off East Cypress Road and Bethel Island Road, and 110 lots at Peixoto Ranch (City of Oakley, Current Projects, checked September 25, 2026). New supply competes with resale homes.
- The commute. SJRRC lists construction of a new Oakley Amtrak station for winter 2026/27, with no opening date (SJRRC, Capital Programs, checked September 25, 2026).
Should I wait to buy or sell in Oakley?
Waiting on a forecast is a bet, not a plan. Decide on your own numbers: what the payment is today, how long you’ll stay, and what similar homes on your streets sold for this summer. If you’re selling, remember one in three Oakley listings cut price in August. Pricing right the first time matters more than guessing the next 1%.
Questions people also ask
Will Oakley home prices go up in 2027?
Nobody knows. Zillow’s Home Value Forecast, base date August 31, 2026, projects a 0.9% rise for ZIP 94561 by August 2027. That’s small enough for one change in rates or jobs to erase. Fannie Mae’s September 2026 forecast has national prices up 1.0% in 2027. Forecasts are often wrong, so plan around recent sales and your own budget.
Are home prices dropping in Oakley, CA?
A little, over the past year. Redfin shows Oakley’s median sale price down 1.1% from August 2025 to August 2026, per its Oakley housing market page checked September 24, 2026. One month of 113 sales is a small sample, and a 1% move can flip in a few months, so don’t read a trend into it.
Does Zillow expect Oakley to keep up with the Bay Area?
No, on its current numbers. Zillow’s Home Value Forecast, base date August 31, 2026, shows ZIP 94561 up 0.9% by August 2027, against 1.4% for the San Francisco metro and 1.4% for the United States. That’s a model’s estimate of its own home value index, not a sale price, and forecasts are often wrong.
What did C.A.R. forecast for 2026?
C.A.R.’s 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, released September 17, 2025, called for a statewide median of $905,000, up 3.6%, and 274,400 single-family sales. By August 2026 the statewide median was $901,420, up 0.1% in a year, per C.A.R.’s August report. It is a statewide forecast; C.A.R. does not forecast Oakley.
Your next step
Want to know what your Oakley home would sell for this fall, or what a house you like should really cost? Send us the address and we’ll pull the sales that actually match it. Talk to an Oakley agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Oakley: How much does a house cost in Oakley? · Is Oakley a good place to live? · Selling a home in Oakley · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Oakley, CA. Updated September 25, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, Oakley housing market page, August 2026: redfin.com/city/13671/CA/Oakley/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
- Redfin, housing market pages for Antioch, Pittsburg, Brentwood and Discovery Bay, August 2026 (checked September 24, 2026)
- Zillow Research, Zillow Home Value Forecast, ZIP and metro files, base date August 31, 2026: zillow.com/research/data (downloaded September 25, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research, Housing Forecast: September 2026, dated September 11, 2026: fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R., “C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” September 17, 2025: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026: car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/august2026sales (checked September 25, 2026)
- City of Oakley, Current Projects: oakleyca.gov/229/Current-Projects (checked September 25, 2026)
- San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission, Capital Programs: sjrrc.com/capital-programs (checked September 25, 2026)