Photo above: The C&H sugar refinery on the Crockett waterfront with hillside homes behind it, April 2006. Ghost Toon
2, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Maybe a little, but nobody knows, and we don’t make predictions. The only published forecast that reaches Crockett is Zillow’s for ZIP 94525, which calls for home values up 0.8% by August 31, 2027 (Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast, base date August 31, 2026, checked September 25, 2026).
Less than 1% over a year is close to flat, and forecasts miss all the time. So below you’ll find who is forecasting what, how last year’s big forecast is holding up, and what Crockett sales actually did.
Who publishes a forecast that covers Crockett?
Zillow, at the ZIP code level, and nobody else. No trade group, bank or county office puts out a number for Crockett itself. Here are the named forecasts, each with the date it was made:
| Forecaster and date | Area | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Zillow Research, base date August 31, 2026 | ZIP 94525 (Crockett) | Up 0.4% by September 30, 2026; up 0.9% by November 30, 2026; up 0.8% by August 31, 2027 |
| Zillow Research, base date August 31, 2026 | San Francisco metro | Up 0.4%, 0.9% and 1.4% over the same three dates |
| Fannie Mae ESR Group, September 11, 2026 | United States | Its home price index up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, fourth quarter to fourth quarter |
| C.A.R., September 17, 2025 | California | State median up 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026 |
Sources: Zillow Research Home Value Forecast data file (checked September 25, 2026); Fannie Mae, Housing Forecast: September 2026; C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast.
A few things change how you read that table. Zillow forecasts its own estimate of a typical home’s value, not actual sale prices. Its ZIP 94525 line climbs into November and then slips back a bit by next August, which tells you how soft the signal is. Fannie Mae updates its price forecast in the first month of each quarter, so a new one is due in October. And C.A.R., California’s statewide real estate trade association, had not posted a 2027 forecast on car.org as of September 25, 2026.
Has last year’s forecast held up?
Not so far. C.A.R. expected the California median to rise 3.6% in 2026, with 30-year mortgage rates averaging 6.0%. Its August 2026 report shows a state median of $901,420, only 0.1% above August 2025. Rates averaged 6.67% in August and passed 7.0% in the second week of September, per Mortgage News Daily (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026).
That gap is normal. Fannie Mae’s own report warns that its views rest on assumptions and can change without notice. When rates move, every forecast built on them moves too.
What did Crockett prices actually do?
They rose, on a tiny number of sales. Redfin puts the Crockett median sale price at $729,517 in August 2026, up 8.1% from a year earlier, or $383 per square foot (Redfin, Crockett housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026).
Here’s the catch. Eight homes sold in Crockett that month. The median one took 28 days to sell and closed at 100.1% of list price. About 37.6% sold over asking, while 30.1% of homes had cut their price along the way (same Redfin page). With 8 sales, two view homes up the hill, or two fixers near the freeway, can move the median a long way. That 8.1% describes those sales. It doesn’t mean your house gained 8.1%.
For the full August picture, see our Crockett home price answer.
How does Crockett compare with the rest of Contra Costa?
Its gain was bigger, and the county number is the steadier one. C.A.R. reported the Contra Costa County median for existing single-family homes at $875,000 in August 2026, up 2.9% from $850,000 a year before. The San Francisco Bay Area median was $1,272,000, down 0.2% (C.A.R., August 2026 report, September 16, 2026).
Those don’t line up exactly. C.A.R. counts single-family homes only. Redfin’s Crockett figure includes every home type. Use the pair for direction, not decimals.
What should I watch instead of a forecast?
Four things, all public, so you can check them yourself:
- Mortgage rates. Every forecast above depends on them. In its August report, C.A.R. noted that prices typically ease in fall and winter and that demand could soften with rates this high. Freddie Mac posts a weekly average rate.
- How many homes sell. Crockett runs on a handful of sales a month. The more sales Redfin counts, the more the median means.
- Price cuts. In August 2026, 30.1% of Crockett homes had a price drop (Redfin). If that share climbs through fall, sellers are chasing buyers.
- Waterfront news. On July 27, 2026, C&H Sugar and ILWU Local 6 agreed to 60 more days of bargaining, with warehouse workers back on the job through at least September 30, 2026 (ILWU news release, July 27, 2026). Nobody has published data linking the refinery to Crockett home values, and we won’t guess. Our C&H refinery answer has the facts.
Should I hold off on buying or selling in Crockett?
Only if your life says so. A forecast under 1% could land on either side of zero, so it’s a weak reason to wait. If you’re buying, have a lender run the payment at today’s rate, then ask yourself: would I still be fine if this home were worth the same five years from now? If you’re selling, what matching Crockett homes closed for in the past few months beats any forecast.
Questions people also ask
What is Zillow’s forecast for Crockett, CA?
Zillow’s Home Value Forecast for ZIP 94525, Crockett’s ZIP code, shows home values up 0.4% by September 30, 2026, up 0.9% by November 30, 2026, and up 0.8% by August 31, 2027, from a base date of August 31, 2026 (checked September 25, 2026). It forecasts Zillow’s own value estimate, not sale prices, and it changes every month.
Are home prices dropping in Crockett?
Not in the latest numbers. Redfin shows Crockett’s August 2026 median sale price at $729,517, up 8.1% from a year earlier, checked September 24, 2026. But only 8 homes sold that month, and 30.1% of homes had a price cut first. One small month can mislead, so look at recent sales of homes like yours.
Is the Crockett housing market going to crash?
We can’t tell you, and we don’t predict. None of the forecasts we track calls for a decline: Zillow shows ZIP 94525 up 0.8% by August 2027, and Fannie Mae’s September 11, 2026 forecast has U.S. prices up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027. Forecasts can be wrong in either direction.
When will C.A.R. put out its 2027 forecast?
C.A.R. had not released one as of September 25, 2026, based on its 2026 news release list. Its 2026 forecast came out September 17, 2025, but no date for the next one has been announced. When it arrives, it will cover California as a whole, not Crockett, so read it next to local sales.
Your next step
Tell us whether you’re thinking about buying, selling or staying put. We’ll pull the recent Crockett sales that match your home or your search, so you decide on closed prices, not a forecast. Talk to a Crockett agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Crockett: Is Crockett, CA a good place to live? · How much does a house cost in Crockett? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Crockett, CA. Updated September 25, 2026.
Sources
- Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast (ZIP and metro files), base date August 31, 2026: zillow.com/research/data (downloaded September 25, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast: September 2026, dated September 11, 2026: fanniemae.com (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R., “C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” September 17, 2025: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026, and 2026 news release list: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- Redfin, Crockett housing market page, August 2026: redfin.com/city/22185/CA/Crockett/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
- ILWU, joint news release on ILWU Local 6 and C&H Sugar bargaining, July 27, 2026: ilwu.org (checked September 25, 2026)