Photo above: Aerial view of the former Concord Naval Weapons Station and the city of Concord, February 2015. Wing, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
No one can tell you that for sure, and be careful with anyone who says they can. The published forecasts for Concord’s ZIP codes call for gains of about 1% or less over the next year (Zillow Research, forecast dated August 31, 2026, checked September 24, 2026), and the Concord median sale price is up 1.1% from a year ago (Redfin, Concord housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026).
That reads as roughly flat, with room to miss in either direction. Here are the forecasts, the record and what to watch.
What have Concord prices done over the past year?
Barely moved. The median Concord sale price was $758,248 in August 2026, up 1.1% from August 2025. Redfin also shows 271 sales that month, a median of 24 days on market and $453 per square foot (Redfin, Concord housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026).
A 1.1% change on one month of sales is small. The mix of condos, townhouses and houses that happened to close that month can move a median that much on its own.
What do the forecasts say for Concord?
Small gains, all of them inside a normal forecasting miss. Zillow publishes one-year home value forecasts by ZIP code. Starting from August 31, 2026 values, here is what it projects by August 31, 2027 (Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast, checked September 24, 2026):
| Area | Forecast change by August 31, 2027 |
|---|---|
| ZIP 94518 | up 0.8% |
| ZIP 94519 | up 0.7% |
| ZIP 94520 | up 0.7% |
| ZIP 94521 | up 1.0% |
| San Francisco metro | up 1.4% |
ZIP code lines do not follow city limits exactly, so these are not Concord-only numbers. They are Zillow’s estimates of a typical home’s value, not a sale price.
What does C.A.R. forecast for California?
A modest statewide rise, and so far reality is running behind it. On September 17, 2025, C.A.R. (the state’s real estate trade group) forecast the California median at $905,000 for 2026, up 3.6%, with a 6.0% average 30-year mortgage rate (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast). As of September 24, 2026, C.A.R. has not released a forecast for 2027.
In its August 2026 report, C.A.R. put the statewide median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from a year earlier. It said 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.67% in August and went above 7.0% in the second week of September (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026). A forecast built on 6.0% rates meets a market paying more than that. Hold every forecast loosely, this one included.
What could push Concord prices down?
These are the pressures to watch. You can check each one yourself.
- Mortgage rates. Higher rates shrink what a buyer can pay each month. Rates topped 7.0% in September 2026, per C.A.R.’s September 16, 2026 report.
- Price cuts. 32.3% of Concord homes had a price drop in August 2026 (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). If that share climbs, sellers are chasing the market.
- Days on market. The median Concord sale took 24 days in August 2026 (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). Watch whether fall listings sit longer than that.
What is holding Concord prices up?
Buyers are still competing for the right homes. In August 2026, 47.0% of Concord homes sold above list price and the typical sale closed at 100.8% of asking (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). Across Contra Costa County, C.A.R. counted 2.7 months of unsold inventory in August 2026 and a median of 20 days on market (C.A.R., September 16, 2026). Short supply tends to support prices, though it is no promise.
Could the Naval Weapons Station homes change Concord prices?
Nobody can say, and nobody should pretend to. On September 24, 2026, the city announced that the U.S. Navy approved the financial Term Sheet for about 2,422 acres of the former base. The Specific Plan comes next, with work starting this winter and more community input expected in early 2027 (Concord Community Reuse Project news, September 24, 2026). Brookfield, the master developer, describes more than 12,200 homes in its vision (concordbpproject.com, checked September 24, 2026).
No construction date has been announced. Any claim that those homes will raise or lower your home’s value is a guess. Follow the city’s reuse project news for real milestones.
Should I wait to buy or sell until prices move?
That’s your call, and no one can time it for you. Waiting to buy saves money if prices dip and costs you if prices or rates climb. Waiting to sell cuts the other way. Better questions: if you’re buying, could you carry this payment and stay put for years even if values stayed flat? A lender can run that for you. If you’re selling, what would your home sell for this month, based on real sales nearby?
Questions people also ask
Are home prices in Concord going down?
Not on the latest data. Redfin shows the Concord median sale price at $758,248 in August 2026, up 1.1% from a year earlier, checked September 24, 2026. That said, 32.3% of homes that month had a price drop before selling. A small move like 1.1% can come from the mix of homes sold, so compare sales of your home type.
What does Zillow predict for Concord home values?
Very little change. Starting from August 31, 2026, Zillow Research projects Concord’s four ZIP codes up between 0.7% and 1.0% by August 31, 2027, and the San Francisco metro up 1.4%, checked September 24, 2026. Moves that small fall inside a normal forecast miss. The fair reading is roughly flat, not a sure gain.
Do mortgage rates affect Concord home prices?
Usually. A higher rate means a higher payment on the same price, so buyers stretch less. C.A.R.’s August 2026 report, released September 16, 2026, said 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.67% in August and passed 7.0% in the second week of September. The rate you’d actually get comes from a lender, not a headline.
Will the base reuse project affect my Concord home’s value?
No one knows. The Navy approved the financial Term Sheet for about 2,422 acres, the city announced September 24, 2026, and planning work starts this winter. No construction date has been set. Until real plans and dates exist, any claim about what the project does to nearby values is a guess. Watch the Concord Community Reuse Project news page.
Your next step
Set the forecast aside for a minute. Want to know what your Concord home, or the one you have your eye on, would sell for this month? Talk with our team about Concord or call (510) 949-5525. We’ll show you the recent sales on that street.
More on Concord: What a house costs in Concord right now · Is Concord a good place to live? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Concord, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, Concord housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026: redfin.com/city/4150/CA/Concord/housing-market
- Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast by ZIP code and metro, base date August 31, 2026: zillow.com/research/data (downloaded September 24, 2026)
- C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, news release of September 17, 2025: car.org
- C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026: car.org (read September 24, 2026)
- Concord Community Reuse Project, “U.S. Navy Approves Financial Agreement for the Base Reuse Project,” September 24, 2026: concordreuseproject.org
- Brookfield, Concord project site: concordbpproject.com (checked September 24, 2026)