Nobody knows, and anyone handing you a number is guessing. The newest forecast that reaches Benicia, Zillow’s with a September 30, 2026 base date, shows home values in ZIP 94510 down 0.4% by September 2027. Benicia’s median sale price was $798,620 in September 2026, down 2.5% from a year earlier (Zillow Research, downloaded November 9, 2026; Redfin, Benicia housing market page, September 2026, checked November 9, 2026).
A small dip, then, and a forecast of a slightly smaller one. Here’s the refinery record, what each forecaster said, and what to watch.
What happened at the refinery?
It stopped making fuel. Valero says it began idling processing units in phases in the first quarter of 2026 and completed full idling of all processing units in April 2026. It plans to keep its operating permits, keep the site idled, and keep evaluating redevelopment options (Valero, Benicia Refinery page, checked November 9, 2026).
The site still has a job for now. KQED reported on April 30, 2026 that Valero’s facilities general manager said on April 17 the refinery would import, store and transport gasoline and diesel for about two years, under an arrangement negotiated with the state (KQED, April 30, 2026).
Where are Benicia prices right now?
Softer than a year ago on every measure Redfin shows. For September 2026 (Redfin, Benicia housing market page, September 2026, checked November 9, 2026):
- Median sale price, all homes: $798,620, down 2.5%.
- Single-family median: $859,907, down 3.9%, on 61 sales.
- Price per square foot: $402, down 8.9%.
- Homes with a price drop: 37.9%, up 7.2 points.
- Median days on market: 46, up 10 days.
- Homes sold: 87, up 30.4%.
More homes sold, more slowly, with more cuts. That’s what a buyer-leaning month looks like. It is one month.
Has the closure shown up in prices?
Not in a way anyone can pull apart from normal swings. Here are Redfin’s Benicia medians for August of each year (Redfin, Benicia housing market page, checked September 24, 2026):
| August of | All home types | Single-family homes |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $817,500 | $915,000 |
| 2023 | $822,500 | $903,000 |
| 2024 | $840,000 | $862,500 |
| 2025 | $747,500 | $885,000 |
| 2026 | $822,456 | $859,746 |
Valero’s plan went public on April 16, 2025 (City of Benicia press release, April 16, 2025). The all-types median then ran $860,000 in April 2025, $900,000 in May and $747,500 in July (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). Benicia closes well under 100 sales a month, and condo sales come and go, so the monthly number jumps around. We won’t invent a refinery effect the data can’t show.
What does Zillow forecast for ZIP 94510?
Slightly down over a year. Zillow’s Home Value Forecast, base date September 30, 2026, projects these changes in its home value index (Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast, ZIP and metro files, downloaded November 9, 2026):
| From September 30, 2026 to | ZIP 94510, Benicia | Vallejo metro |
|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | up 0.2% | up 0.1% |
| December 31, 2026 | up 0.2% | down 0.1% |
| September 30, 2027 | down 0.4% | down 0.4% |
Zillow puts Benicia in its Vallejo metro, which covers Solano County. It files 94510 under Benicia, and ZIP lines don’t follow city limits exactly. Read a 0.4% change as close to flat.
What do C.A.R. and Fannie Mae forecast?
Both forecast bigger areas, not Benicia.
- C.A.R. 2027 forecast, released October 7, 2026: a California median of $894,400 in 2027, up 1.4%, with 277,900 existing single-family sales, up 3.7%, and a 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.6% (C.A.R., 2027 California Housing Market Forecast, checked November 9, 2026). C.A.R. is the statewide real estate trade association. It does not forecast Benicia.
- Fannie Mae, October 2026 Housing Forecast, dated October 12, 2026: its national home price index up 2.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, fourth quarter over fourth quarter, with 30-year rates averaging 6.7% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027 (Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, checked November 9, 2026). That’s the whole country.
How did last year’s forecast do?
It came in high. On September 17, 2025, C.A.R. forecast California’s 2026 median at $905,000, up 3.6%, with a 6.0% mortgage rate (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast). Its October 7, 2026 forecast now puts 2026 at $882,200, up 0.8%, with rates at 6.6%. Its September 2026 report, released October 19, 2026, showed the state single-family median at $899,720, up 1.7% from a year earlier, with the 30-year rate averaging 6.86% that month, per Freddie Mac (C.A.R., September 2026 home sales and price report).
Solano County ran the other way: a $580,000 median in September 2026, down 4.6%, on 9.1% fewer sales (same report). Benicia’s Redfin median was down 2.5% over the same year. Forecasts are often wrong, careful ones included. Treat each one as a guess with a date on it.
What does the closure mean for the city budget and the site?
Money first. A study the city commissioned from HdL ECONSolutions in September 2025 says Benicia could lose more than $10.6 million a year in tax revenue, with uncertain timing. It does not estimate home prices (City of Benicia, Economic Impact of Valero Refinery Closure, September 2025).
On the land, the city lists a “Refinery Redevelopment” application: about 900 acres, about 3,500 homes, up to 600,000 square feet of commercial space, up to 3 million square feet of industrial space and about 150 acres of parks and open space (City of Benicia, Current Development page, checked November 9, 2026). Signature Development Group says it submitted preliminary plans on May 15, 2026 (Move Benicia Forward, checked November 9, 2026). We found no hearing or approval as of November 9, 2026.
On the ballot, the unofficial count updated November 6, 2026 showed Measure Y, the charter, at 45.1% yes and Measure Z, the city transfer tax, at 51.2% yes (KQED election results, from Solano County, checked November 9, 2026). The city’s own analysis says Measure Z takes effect only if both pass. These are unofficial results; the county had not certified them as of November 9, 2026. Ask a tax pro how any transfer tax applies to your sale.
What should I watch?
- Price cuts. 37.9% in September 2026. Rising cuts mean sellers are chasing buyers.
- Days on market. 46 in September, 10 more than a year earlier.
- Sale-to-list. 98.8% in September 2026 (Redfin, same page). When it slides, buyers are bargaining harder.
- The site. Any hearing on the redevelopment application, and how long the fuel import work lasts.
- Mortgage rates. C.A.R.’s monthly report prints the average.
Should I wait until the refinery picture is clear?
The city’s 2025 study says redevelopment of the site is expected to take several years, and nobody can tell you where prices sit when it’s settled. Decide on your own numbers. Buying: the payment you can carry and how long you’ll stay. Selling: what you need to net and when you need to move. Then study recent sales of homes like yours.
Questions people also ask
Will Benicia home prices go down in 2027?
Nobody knows. Zillow’s forecast with a September 30, 2026 base date shows ZIP 94510 down 0.4% by September 2027, the same as the Vallejo metro. C.A.R.’s October 7, 2026 forecast has the California median up 1.4% in 2027, but it does not cover Benicia alone. Both are small moves that a change in rates can wipe out.
Did Benicia home prices drop when Valero announced the closure?
The numbers don’t show a clean drop. Valero’s plan became public in April 2025. Redfin’s Benicia median was $860,000 in April 2025, $900,000 in May and $747,500 in July, then $798,620 in September 2026. Monthly sales are small, so swings are big, and no one can isolate a refinery effect.
Is the Benicia refinery closed for good?
Valero says it completed full idling of all processing units in April 2026, will keep its operating permits and is evaluating redevelopment options, per its Benicia Refinery page checked November 9, 2026. KQED reported on April 30, 2026 that the site would import, store and move fuel for about two years. No redevelopment plan has been approved.
Are Benicia home prices down from last year?
Yes, a little. Redfin shows a September 2026 median of $798,620, down 2.5%, single-family homes down 3.9% to $859,907, and price per square foot down 8.9%, checked November 9, 2026. Solano County’s single-family median was $580,000 in September 2026, down 4.6%, per C.A.R.’s October 19, 2026 report.
Your next step
Weighing a move now against waiting on the refinery? Let’s put your home, or the one you want, next to real recent sales. Talk to a Benicia agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Benicia: How much does a house cost in Benicia right now? · What the Valero closure means for homes · Will I pay a transfer tax when I sell my Benicia home? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Benicia, CA. Updated November 9, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, Benicia housing market page, September 2026, checked November 9, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/city/1415/CA/Benicia/housing-market
- Redfin, Benicia housing market page, monthly and August medians September 2021 through August 2026, from the page’s charts (checked September 24, 2026)
- Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast, ZIP and metro files, base date September 30, 2026, downloaded November 9, 2026: https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvf_growth/Zip_zhvf_growth_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv and https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvf_growth/Metro_zhvf_growth_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv
- C.A.R., 2027 California Housing Market Forecast, released October 7, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/2027housingforecast (checked November 9, 2026)
- C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, released September 17, 2025: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2025releases/2026forecast
- C.A.R., September 2026 home sales and price report, released October 19, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/sept2026sales (checked November 9, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast: October 2026, dated October 12, 2026: https://www.fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast (checked November 9, 2026)
- Valero, Benicia Refinery page: https://www.valero.com/about/locations/benicia-refinery (checked November 9, 2026)
- KQED, “California’s Fuel Fears Threaten Benicia’s ‘Just Transition’ to Green Economy,” April 30, 2026: https://www.kqed.org/science/2000877 (checked November 9, 2026)
- City of Benicia, press release on Valero’s intent to cease operations, April 16, 2025: ci.benicia.ca.us (checked September 24, 2026)
- City of Benicia, Economic Impact of Valero Refinery Closure, HdL ECONSolutions, September 2025: ci.benicia.ca.us (checked September 24, 2026)
- City of Benicia, Current Development page: https://www.ci.benicia.ca.us/currentdevelopment (checked November 9, 2026)
- Signature Development Group, Move Benicia Forward: https://www.movebeniciaforward.com/ (checked November 9, 2026)
- KQED, 2026 Solano County election results, updated November 6, 2026: https://www.kqed.org/elections/results/solano (checked November 9, 2026)
- City of Benicia, Elections page and City Attorney’s Impartial Analysis of Measure Z, August 11, 2026: ci.benicia.ca.us/elections (checked October 21, 2026)