Photo above: Aerial view of Vacaville, California, 2009. Dcoetzee, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Here is what we can show you: Vacaville’s August median sale price has stayed between $595,000 and $630,000 every year since 2022, and it was $609,597 in August 2026, down 3.2% from a year earlier (Redfin, Vacaville housing market page, checked September 24, 2026).

That is a dip inside a flat range, not a collapse. Below is the record, what the forecasters said, and the numbers worth watching.

What have Vacaville prices done over the last five years?

Stayed in a tight band. Redfin’s all-types median sale price for Vacaville, same month each year (Redfin, Vacaville housing market page, checked September 24, 2026):

Month	Median sale price	Homes sold
August 2022	$611,000	325
August 2023	$595,000	247
August 2024	$616,500	268
August 2025	$630,000	271
August 2026	$609,597	249

From the low year to the high year, that is a spread of about $35,000. If you bought in Vacaville anytime in the last four years, the city median today is close to what it was when you bought. Your own house can differ from the city median, of course.

What did forecasters predict for 2026?

A small statewide gain. So far, not much of one.

• The forecast. C.A.R., California’s statewide real estate trade association, released its 2026 forecast on September 17, 2025. It called for a statewide median price of $905,000 in 2026, up 3.6%, and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.0% (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, checked September 24, 2026).
• What happened. In August 2026, the statewide median for existing single-family homes was $901,420, up 0.1% from a year earlier, and the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.67% (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026).

C.A.R. forecasts California as a whole, not Vacaville. The point of showing both is simple: forecasts are often wrong. The rate guess missed by more than half a point, and rates set how much a buyer can borrow. C.A.R. had not posted a 2027 forecast as of September 24, 2026.

Is Solano County dropping faster than Vacaville?

In August, yes, on C.A.R.’s numbers. C.A.R. reported a Solano County median of $575,000 for existing single-family homes in August 2026, down 7.3% from $620,000 a year earlier and down 5.7% from July. Sales were up 12.5% from a year earlier, and the median time on market was 40 days (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026).

That is a different source and a county-wide mix, so don’t set it next to Redfin’s Vacaville number dollar for dollar. Read it as a signal about the region, not a price for your street.

What numbers should I watch?

Four monthly numbers on Redfin’s Vacaville page tend to shift before prices do (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026):

1. Share of homes with price cuts. 35.6% in August 2026, about the same as 36.8% in August 2025, and up from 23.8% in April 2026. When more sellers cut, buyers have the upper hand.
2. Median days on market. 36 days in August 2026. It was 61 days in February 2026. Longer waits mean more room to negotiate.
3. Homes sold. 249 in August 2026, down from 271 a year earlier. Fewer sales at steady prices can mean buyers are waiting.
4. Sold above list. 45.3% in August 2026, up from 35.4% a year earlier. That share falling fast would be an early warning.

And watch mortgage rates. They drive what buyers can pay more than almost anything else.

Will all the new subdivisions push prices down?

They add supply, but no one can tell you by how much. The city’s New Communities page lists Greentree (1,149 units) and Lower Lagoon Valley (1,025 units) as approved, with Lower Lagoon Valley’s phases showing no activity yet. Roberts’ Ranch (785 units) and Vanden Meadows (780 units) are under construction, and a 1,251-unit North Village area plan revision is under review (City of Vacaville, New Communities page, checked September 24, 2026).

If you own a newer home near those projects, builder incentives are your competition when you sell. Ask what the builders nearby are offering before you set your price.

Should I wait for prices to drop before I buy?

Only if waiting fits your life anyway. Five years of Vacaville data show a flat band, and the best-known forecast for 2026 missed. Timing the bottom is a guess.

Decide on your own numbers instead. Buying: the monthly payment you can carry, and how long you’ll stay. Selling: what you need to walk away with, and when you need to move. Then look at recent sales of homes like the one you’re weighing.

Questions people also ask

Is the Vacaville housing market going to crash?

No one can promise either way. What the record shows: Redfin’s August median sale price for Vacaville was between $595,000 and $630,000 every year from 2022 to 2026, and it was $609,597 in August 2026, down 3.2% from a year earlier. That is a modest dip in a flat range. Watch price cuts and days on market for early signs of change.

What is the housing forecast for Solano County?

We found no published price forecast for Solano County alone. C.A.R.’s 2026 forecast, released September 17, 2025, covers California: a statewide median of $905,000, up 3.6%. Actual Solano County numbers from C.A.R. for August 2026 showed a median of $575,000, down 7.3% from a year earlier, with sales up 12.5%. Forecasts are often wrong.

Will mortgage rates go down in Vacaville?

Mortgage rates are set by national markets, not by city. C.A.R. forecast a 6.0% average 30-year fixed rate for 2026 in its September 17, 2025 release, and its August 2026 report said the rate averaged 6.67% that month. No one knows where rates go next. Ask a lender for a quote on your own numbers.

Is now a good time to buy a house in Vacaville?

It depends on your budget and how long you’ll stay, not on a forecast. Redfin shows Vacaville prices roughly flat since 2022, with a median of $609,597 in August 2026. If the payment works and you plan to stay several years, short swings matter less. If you might move in a year or two, be more careful.

Your next step

Want to see how your street has held up over five years? We’ll pull the sales for you. Talk to a Vacaville agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.

More on Vacaville: Is Vacaville a good place to live? · How much does a house cost in Vacaville? · Selling a home in Vacaville · What’s my home worth?

By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Vacaville, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.

Sources

• Redfin, Vacaville, CA housing market page: August median sale price and homes sold for 2022 through 2026, and August 2026 price drops, days on market and homes sold above list: redfin.com/city/20361/CA/Vacaville/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
• C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, released September 17, 2025: car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2025releases/2026forecast (checked September 24, 2026)
• C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026: car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/august2026sales (checked September 24, 2026)
• City of Vacaville Community Development, New Communities: cityofvacaville.gov (checked September 24, 2026)