Nobody knows, and anyone who tells you for certain is guessing. The one published forecast we found for Orinda’s ZIP code calls for roughly flat values: Zillow projects ZIP 94563 up 0.9% by August 2027 (Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast, base date August 31, 2026, downloaded September 25, 2026). Meanwhile Orinda’s actual August 2026 median sale price was $1,998,677, up 12.7% from a year before (Redfin, Orinda housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026).
We won’t add a forecast of our own. Here’s what the named forecasters say, what really happened, and how to plan without one.
What does Zillow forecast for Orinda home values?
Very little change. Zillow Research publishes a Home Value Forecast by ZIP code, measured from its own estimate of a typical home’s value. Starting from August 31, 2026, it projects:
| Forecast period | ZIP 94563 (Orinda) | San Francisco metro |
|---|---|---|
| By September 30, 2026 | +0.7% | +0.4% |
| By November 30, 2026 | +1.5% | +0.9% |
| By August 31, 2027 | +0.9% | +1.4% |
Source: Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast by ZIP code and metro, base date August 31, 2026 (downloaded September 25, 2026).
Notice the shape. Zillow’s Orinda number rises through November and then gives some back by next August. Also know what it measures. ZIP 94563 isn’t a perfect match for city limits, and Zillow forecasts its own value estimate, not sale prices. A 0.9% move is well within the size of a normal forecast miss.
What does C.A.R. forecast for California?
Modest gains statewide for 2026. In its “2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” released September 17, 2025, C.A.R., the statewide real estate trade association, projected:
- the California median price up 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026
- existing single-family home sales up 2% to 274,400
- the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate down to 6.0%
Source: C.A.R., 2026 forecast news release, September 17, 2025 (checked September 25, 2026). C.A.R. had not published a 2027 forecast as of September 25, 2026.
That’s a statewide forecast. It says nothing specific about Orinda, where the median is more than twice the state’s.
How have those forecasts done so far?
Mixed, which is normal. C.A.R.’s August 2026 report put the statewide median at $901,420, up 0.1% from August 2025, below the 3.6% pace it forecast (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026). The same report said home prices typically ease in fall and winter, and that prices may face more downward pressure through the end of the year.
Orinda went the other way. Its August 2026 median was up 12.7% from a year earlier (Redfin, same page). With only 61 sales that month, the mix of houses that closed can swing that number a lot. One month is not a trend.
That’s the honest lesson. Forecasts get revised, and a small town’s monthly median can jump in a direction no forecaster expected.
What does the Orinda market look like right now?
Fast for well-priced homes, with price cuts on others. Redfin’s August 2026 figures for Orinda:
| Measure | August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,998,677 |
| Change from a year earlier | +12.7% |
| Homes sold | 61 |
| Median days on market | 14 |
| Sale price vs. list price | 100.9% |
| Sold over list | 44.1% |
| Listings with a price drop | 24.0% |
Source: Redfin, Orinda housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026.
What local things could move Orinda prices?
We can’t say which way, but these are the Orinda items worth watching, all dated and public:
- BART’s funding vote. BART’s Alternative Service Plan, initially approved February 26, 2026, would allow closing up to 15 stations from July 2027 if no new funding arrives. It names none (BART news release, February 26, 2026). A regional transit sales tax is on the November 3, 2026 ballot. For what any tax means for you, ask a tax professional.
- Fire insurance costs. The City of Orinda lists non-renewals and higher premiums as problems residents face (City of Orinda, Fire Insurance page, checked September 25, 2026). For a quote on a specific house, ask a licensed insurance agent.
- New housing. Orinda’s Housing Element, certified by the state in March 2023, plans for 1,359 new homes through 2031 (City of Orinda, Housing Element page, checked September 25, 2026).
None of these is a prediction. Each one is a reason to check the news before you set a price or an offer.
Should I wait to buy or sell in Orinda?
Decide on your own timeline, not a forecast. If you’re buying, ask whether the payment and the insurance quote work today, and whether you’ll stay long enough to ride out a flat or down stretch. If you’re selling, the questions are what your home is worth now and where you’re going next. A forecast of about 1% either way isn’t a reason to rush or to wait.
Questions people also ask
What is Zillow’s forecast for Orinda home values?
Zillow Research projects ZIP 94563 up 0.9% by August 31, 2027, starting from August 31, 2026 values, with a 1.5% gain by November 30, 2026 along the way, per data downloaded September 25, 2026. The San Francisco metro forecast is up 1.4% over the same year. ZIP lines don’t match city limits exactly, and a change this small sits inside a normal forecast miss.
Are Orinda home prices going up or down?
Up over the past year, by Redfin’s count. The Orinda median sale price was $1,998,677 in August 2026, 12.7% higher than a year earlier, per Redfin’s Orinda housing market page checked September 24, 2026. That’s one month and 61 sales, so it swings with the mix of homes sold. Look at recent sales of homes like yours for a truer read.
What did C.A.R. forecast for 2026?
In its forecast released September 17, 2025, C.A.R. projected the California median price up 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, single-family sales up 2% and a 6.0% average 30-year mortgage rate. Its August 2026 report showed the statewide median at $901,420, up 0.1% from a year earlier. No 2027 forecast was out as of September 25, 2026.
Is 2026 a good time to buy a house in Orinda?
It depends on your finances and plans, not on the calendar. In August 2026, Orinda homes sold in a median of 14 days and 24.0% of listings took a price cut, per Redfin. Forecasts for the next year are close to flat. Get a firm payment number, an insurance quote and the fire zone for any house before deciding.
Your next step
Skip the guesswork. Tell us the Orinda house you own or the one you’re watching, and we’ll show you what similar homes sold for this year. Talk to our team about Orinda prices or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Orinda: How much does a house cost in Orinda right now? · Is Orinda, CA a good place to live? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Orinda, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.
Sources
- Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast by ZIP code and metro, base date August 31, 2026: zillow.com/research/data (downloaded September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, released September 17, 2025: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- Redfin, Orinda housing market page, August 2026: redfin.com/city/14057/CA/Orinda/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
- BART, “BART Board initially approves Alternative Service Plan outlining budget balancing details,” February 26, 2026: bart.gov/news (checked September 25, 2026)
- City of Orinda, Fire Insurance page: cityoforinda.gov/641 (checked September 25, 2026)
- City of Orinda, Housing Element page: cityoforinda.gov/154 (checked September 25, 2026)