Photo above: The Town Meeting Hall on Front Street in Danville, California, September 2007. ShakataGaNai, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
No one can tell you for sure, and a forecast is a guess with a date on it. What we can show you: Danville’s median sale price was $1,817,797 in August 2026, up 6.0% from a year earlier (Redfin, Danville housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026), while the named 2026 forecasts called for gains of 2.3% to 3.6% for the state and the country.
We don’t add our own prediction. Below: who forecast what, how it’s playing out, and what to watch yourself.
Is there a forecast just for Danville?
Not one we could find. As of September 25, 2026, we found no named, dated price forecast for Danville alone from a recognized source. The forecasts people quote cover California or the whole country. If someone shows you a Danville number, ask who made it and when.
What did the big forecasters say for 2026?
Modest gains, on a lower mortgage rate than we got.
| Forecaster | Published | Price call | Rate assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.A.R., California median home price | September 17, 2025 | Up 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026 | 30-year fixed averaging 6.0% in 2026 |
| Fannie Mae, national home price index | September 11, 2026 | Up 2.3% in 2026, up 1.0% in 2027 | 6.5% average in 2026, 6.7% in 2027 |
Sources: C.A.R., “2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” news release, September 17, 2025; Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast, September 11, 2026 (both checked September 25, 2026). They measure different things. C.A.R. forecasts the statewide median sale price of existing single-family homes. Fannie Mae forecasts a national price index, fourth quarter to fourth quarter. C.A.R.’s news releases showed no 2027 forecast as of September 25, 2026.
How is that playing out so far?
Statewide, flatter than C.A.R. called. C.A.R.’s August 2026 report put the California median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from August 2025. In Contra Costa County, the single-family median was $875,000, up 2.9% (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026).
The rate assumption missed. Thirty-year fixed rates averaged 6.67% in August 2026, and by the second week of September they had passed 7.0%, per Mortgage News Daily as cited in the same C.A.R. report. C.A.R. planned on 6.0%. When a key input misses, the forecast built on it usually misses too.
Why is Danville up 6.0% when the state is flat?
Maybe the market, maybe the mix. Redfin’s Danville median blends condos, townhomes and detached houses, and only 139 homes sold in August 2026 (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). If more large homes happened to close this August than last, the median rises without any single home gaining a dollar.
So treat 6.0% as one month, not a trend. The rest of Redfin’s August picture is more mixed: the sale-to-list ratio was 99.4%, 30.9% of homes sold above list, and Redfin counted price drops on 30.4% of homes (same source).
What could push Danville prices down?
Watch these. Each one is public and you can check it yourself:
- Mortgage rates. A higher rate shrinks what a buyer can pay for the same monthly payment. Rates topped 7.0% in September 2026 (C.A.R., September 16, 2026).
- Price cuts. Redfin counted price drops on 30.4% of Danville homes in August 2026. If that share grows month after month, sellers are chasing buyers.
- The season. C.A.R. says home prices typically ease during the fall and winter months (C.A.R., August 2026 report).
- Insurance. Parts of Danville are in very high, high or moderate fire hazard zones on the State Fire Marshal’s map dated February 24, 2025. What coverage costs, and whether it’s available, feeds straight into what buyers can pay. Get quotes for a specific address from a licensed insurance agent.
What is holding Danville prices up?
Buyers are still paying close to asking. Danville’s sale-to-list ratio was 99.4% in August 2026, with a median of 26 days on market (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). Across Contra Costa County, single-family homes had 2.7 months of unsold inventory and a median of 20 days on market (C.A.R., August 2026 report).
Supply is the one to track over years, not months. Under the state’s 2023 to 2031 housing cycle, Danville must plan for at least 2,241 new homes (Town of Danville, Housing Element page, checked September 25, 2026). Planning for homes is not building them. How much actually gets built, and what it does to nearby values, is something nobody can tell you ahead of time.
Should I wait to buy or sell in Danville?
That’s your call, and no one can time it for you. Waiting to buy saves money if prices dip and costs money if prices or rates climb. Waiting to sell works the other way.
Better questions to ask. Buying: can you carry this payment today and be fine if the value stays flat for five years? A lender can run that math with you. Selling: what would your home bring this month, based on real sales of homes like yours? We can pull that for you.
Questions people also ask
Are Danville home prices going down?
Not on the latest numbers. Redfin shows Danville’s median sale price at $1,817,797 in August 2026, up 6.0% from a year earlier, checked September 24, 2026. At the same time, Redfin counted price drops on 30.4% of Danville homes. With only 139 sales that month, the median can swing with the mix of homes sold, so check sales of your own home type.
What does C.A.R. forecast for California home prices in 2026?
C.A.R.’s forecast, released September 17, 2025, called for the California median to rise 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, with 30-year rates averaging 6.0%. Its August 2026 report showed a statewide median of $901,420, up 0.1% from a year earlier, and rates above 7.0% by mid September. As of September 25, 2026, C.A.R. had not released a 2027 forecast.
What does Fannie Mae forecast for home prices?
Fannie Mae’s Housing Forecast dated September 11, 2026 calls for its national home price index to rise 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, with 30-year rates averaging 6.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027. It is a national figure, not a Danville one, and Fannie Mae notes its views can change without notice.
Are housing forecasts usually right?
Often not. C.A.R. expected 30-year rates to average 6.0% in 2026, but they averaged 6.67% in August and passed 7.0% in September, per C.A.R.’s August 2026 report. The statewide median was up just 0.1% from a year earlier against a 3.6% forecast. Use forecasts as one input and watch the monthly numbers.
Your next step
Skip the crystal ball. Send us your address or the Danville homes you’re watching, and we’ll show you what similar homes actually sold for in the last few months. Talk to an agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Danville: How much does a house cost in Danville right now? · Is Danville a good place to live? · When is the best time to sell in Danville? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Danville, CA. Updated September 25, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, Danville housing market page (redfin.com/city/4658/CA/Danville/housing-market), August 2026 data, checked September 24, 2026
- C.A.R. (California’s statewide real estate association), “2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” news release, September 17, 2025: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast, September 11, 2026: fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast (checked September 25, 2026)
- Town of Danville, Housing Element page: danville.ca.gov/886 (checked September 25, 2026)
- CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Danville Local Responsibility Area Fire Hazard Severity Zones map, February 24, 2025: cccfpd.org (read September 25, 2026)