Nobody knows, and we won’t guess. No major forecaster publishes a number for Rodeo, and the statewide and national forecasts that do exist call for small gains at best, with a track record of missing.
Here’s what the named forecasters actually said, how that compares with what happened, and what Rodeo’s own numbers show.
What do the forecasters say about 2026 and 2027?
Small gains, statewide and nationally. None of these is a Rodeo forecast.
- C.A.R. (California’s statewide real estate trade association), 2026 forecast, released September 17, 2025: the California median price rising 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, existing single-family sales up 2% to 274,400, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.0% (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast).
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast, September 11, 2026: U.S. home prices, by its own price index, up 2.3% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027, measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter. It puts the 30-year fixed rate at an average of 6.5% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027 (Fannie Mae, Housing Forecast: September 2026).
C.A.R. had not released a 2027 California forecast as of September 24, 2026 (C.A.R. 2026 news release list, checked September 24, 2026).
How accurate have these forecasts been?
Not very, and that’s normal. C.A.R. expected the California median to rise 3.6% in 2026. Through August 2026, C.A.R.’s own report put the state median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from a year earlier (C.A.R. August 2026 sales report, released September 16, 2026). C.A.R. also expected mortgage rates to average 6.0% this year. Fannie Mae’s September 2026 report shows the 30-year rate averaged 6.1% in the first quarter and 6.4% in the second.
Fannie Mae says plainly that its forecasts rest on assumptions and can change without notice. C.A.R. named its own risks too, including trade tensions and “the home insurance crisis.” Treat any forecast as one opinion on a given date, not a promise.
What has actually happened to Rodeo prices?
The Rodeo median went up a lot, on very few sales. Redfin puts the median sale price at $705,783 for the three months ending August 2026, up 38.4% from a year earlier, and price per square foot at $471, up 35.0% (Redfin, Rodeo housing market page, checked September 24, 2026).
The other signals point the other way. Homes took a median of 30 days to sell in August 2026, up from 11 a year earlier, and closed at 98.8% of list price on average, down 0.52 points (Redfin, same page). And only 10 homes sold in August 2026. With a sample that small, the mix of homes that happened to close can drive most of the change. Our Rodeo home price answer shows how wide the range of recent sale prices is.
How does Rodeo compare with the county and the Bay Area?
Rodeo’s jump is far bigger than the region’s. C.A.R. reported the Contra Costa County median for existing single-family homes at $875,000 in August 2026, up 2.9% from $850,000 a year earlier. The San Francisco Bay Area median was $1,272,000, down 0.2% (C.A.R. August 2026 sales report, released September 16, 2026). Those are single-family numbers from a different source than Redfin’s all-homes figure for Rodeo, so they don’t line up exactly. Still, when one small unincorporated community far outruns its county on 10 sales a month, sample size is the first suspect.
What could move Rodeo prices from here?
We’re not predicting. These are the things worth watching, and where to watch them:
- Mortgage rates. Both forecasts above hinge on them. Freddie Mac posts the weekly average rate.
- How many homes sell. Watch Redfin’s monthly count for Rodeo. More sales make the median more trustworthy.
- Days on market and sale-to-list. If homes keep taking longer and closing under asking, that tells you more than one median.
- Local changes. Rodeo is unincorporated, so there is no city council. Contra Costa County posts Rodeo road and creek projects in its news flash, and the Rodeo Municipal Advisory Council, which advises the county, hears proposed projects on the 4th Thursday of each month (Contra Costa County, checked September 24, 2026).
Should I wait to buy or sell in Rodeo?
Decide on your own timeline, not on a forecast. If you need to move, the right price is the one recent comparable sales support today. Waiting for a better market means betting on a forecast that is often wrong. If you’re buying, figure out the payment you can live with at today’s rate. If you’re selling, start with what similar homes near you actually closed for.
Questions people also ask
Is the Rodeo housing market going to crash?
Nobody can say, and we don’t predict. The forecasts we track do not call for a drop. C.A.R.’s 2026 forecast, released September 17, 2025, expected California prices up 3.6%, and Fannie Mae’s September 11, 2026 forecast expects U.S. prices up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027. Neither forecasts Rodeo specifically, and both can be wrong.
What is the C.A.R. forecast for 2026?
C.A.R.’s 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, released September 17, 2025, projected the state median price at $905,000, up 3.6%, with existing single-family sales up 2% to 274,400 and a 6.0% average 30-year mortgage rate. Through August 2026, C.A.R. reported the state median at $901,420, up 0.1% from a year earlier.
Why did Rodeo prices jump 38% in a year?
Redfin shows a 38.4% rise in Rodeo’s median sale price for the three months ending August 2026, checked September 24, 2026. But only 10 homes sold in August 2026 and 7 a year earlier. With so few sales, a handful of larger or newer homes can push the median up fast. Days on market also rose, from 11 to 30.
When will C.A.R. release its 2027 forecast?
C.A.R. had not published a 2027 forecast as of September 24, 2026, based on its 2026 news release list. The 2026 forecast came out on September 17, 2025, so a fall release is likely but not announced. Check car.org for the release, and read it as one estimate, not a promise.
Your next step
Tell us your timeline and the home you have or want. We’ll show you what similar Rodeo homes actually sold for, so you can decide on real numbers instead of a forecast. Talk to a Rodeo agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Rodeo: Is Rodeo a good place to live? · How much does a house cost in Rodeo? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Rodeo, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.
Sources
- C.A.R., “C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” September 17, 2025: car.org
- C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026, and 2026 news release list: car.org (checked September 24, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast: September 2026, dated September 11, 2026: fanniemae.com
- Redfin, Rodeo housing market, data through August 2026: redfin.com/city/25362/CA/Rodeo/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
- Contra Costa County, news flash and Rodeo Municipal Advisory Council pages: contracosta.ca.gov (checked September 24, 2026)