Nobody knows, and we won’t pretend to. The newest named forecast we found, Zillow’s from August 31, 2026, projects home values in Richmond ZIP codes rising between 1.1% and 1.3% by August 2027, while actual Richmond sale prices were down 5.4% from a year earlier in August 2026 (Zillow Research; Redfin, checked September 24, 2026).
So the forecast says “a little up.” The recent sales say “down a bit.” Here’s where each number comes from, and how to use it without betting your move on it.
What are Richmond prices doing right now?
Down from a year ago. The median Richmond home sold for $614,593 in August 2026, down 5.4% from August 2025. Homes still sold in a median of 19 days, and 63.8% sold above list price (Redfin, Richmond housing market page, checked September 24, 2026).
Over the past 12 months, Redfin’s monthly Richmond median stayed between $600,000 and $650,000. One month’s drop can reflect which homes happened to sell as much as any change in value.
That’s the trend you can actually see. Everything below is someone’s forecast.
What does Zillow forecast for Richmond?
Small gains over the next year, by ZIP code. Zillow’s Home Value Forecast, with a base date of August 31, 2026, projects these changes in its home value index from August 2026 to August 2027 (Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast by ZIP code, downloaded September 24, 2026):
| ZIP code | Zillow’s forecast, Aug 2026 to Aug 2027 |
|---|---|
| 94801 | up 1.1% |
| 94803 | up 1.2% |
| 94804 | up 1.2% |
| 94806 | up 1.2% |
| 94805 | up 1.3% |
| San Francisco metro area | up 1.4% |
Two notes. Zillow labels 94806 as San Pablo, but some Richmond addresses use it, including Hilltop Mall Road, so check the ZIP on the listing. Zillow’s same file shows small dips over the next one to three months before those one-year gains. A 1% forecast is inside the normal error of any forecast. Read these as “about flat,” not as a promise of growth.
What does C.A.R. forecast?
C.A.R., California’s statewide real estate trade association, publishes one statewide forecast a year. Its latest, released September 17, 2025, called for 2026 to bring (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast):
- a statewide median price of $905,000, up 3.6% from 2025
- existing single-family home sales of 274,400, up 2%
- a 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.0%
C.A.R. does not forecast Richmond or Contra Costa County on their own. We found no 2027 forecast on car.org as of September 24, 2026.
Are forecasts usually right?
Often not, and C.A.R.’s own 2026 numbers show why you shouldn’t lean on them. It forecast a 6.0% mortgage rate and a 3.6% rise in the state median. By August 2026, C.A.R.’s own report showed the rate averaging 6.67%, based on Freddie Mac data, and the state median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from August 2025 (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026).
That isn’t a knock on C.A.R. Rates, jobs and the stock market move in ways nobody sees a year out. A forecast is a best guess made on one day. Treat it that way.
What could move Richmond prices?
We won’t predict. We’ll tell you what to watch:
- Mortgage rates. They set what buyers can pay each month. C.A.R. reports the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.67% in August 2026, based on Freddie Mac data.
- The Hilltop Horizon plan. The city is planning the future of about 143 acres around Hilltop Mall, south of Richmond Parkway between San Pablo Avenue and Interstate 80. The city’s stated goal is to move the area from a low-intensity, auto-oriented retail center to a higher-intensity, mixed-use destination (City of Richmond, Hilltop Horizon Specific Plan site, checked September 24, 2026). The mix of uses has not been set. Nobody can say yet what it means for nearby prices.
- How many homes sell and how fast. Richmond had 175 sales in August 2026, down from 197 a year earlier, and homes sold for 104.2% of list price on average (Redfin). Watch both numbers month to month.
Should I wait to buy or sell?
Decide on your own numbers, not on a forecast. If you’re buying, the questions are simple: can you afford the payment today, and will you stay long enough to ride out a flat or down year or two? If you’re selling, look at what homes like yours sold for in the last three months. That’s real. A forecast isn’t.
Questions people also ask
Are Richmond home prices dropping?
Compared with a year ago, yes. Redfin shows Richmond’s median sale price at $614,593 in August 2026, down 5.4% from August 2025, per its Richmond housing market page checked September 24, 2026. Homes still sold in a median of 19 days, and 63.8% sold above list price. One month’s median moves with the mix of homes that sold.
Will Richmond home prices rise in 2027?
Nobody knows. Zillow’s Home Value Forecast from August 31, 2026 projects gains of 1.1% to 1.3% across Richmond ZIP codes by August 2027, which is close to flat. C.A.R. has not published a 2027 forecast as of September 24, 2026. Forecasts are often wrong, so base your decision on today’s sales and your own budget.
What did C.A.R. forecast for California home prices in 2026?
In its forecast released September 17, 2025, C.A.R. projected California’s median home price would rise 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, with a 6.0% average mortgage rate. Its August 2026 report showed the state median at $901,420, up 0.1% from a year earlier, with rates averaging 6.67%. It does not publish a Richmond forecast.
Is now a good time to buy a house in Richmond?
That depends on your payment, your timeline and the specific home, not on a forecast. Richmond’s median sale price was down 5.4% year over year in August 2026, but 63.8% of homes sold above list, per Redfin, checked September 24, 2026. If you plan to stay several years and the payment works, timing matters less.
Your next step
Thinking about buying or selling in the next year? Tell us the street. We’ll show you the actual recent sales there and what the payment looks like at today’s rates, so you’re deciding on facts, not headlines. Talk to a Richmond agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Richmond: How much does a house cost in Richmond right now? · Living in Richmond, CA · Best time to sell in Richmond · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Richmond, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, Richmond, CA housing market, August 2026: redfin.com/city/15629/CA/Richmond/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
- Zillow Research, Zillow Home Value Forecast (ZIP and Metro, base date August 31, 2026): zillow.com/research/data (downloaded September 24, 2026)
- C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, released September 17, 2025: car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2025releases/2026forecast
- C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026: car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/august2026sales
- City of Richmond, Hilltop Horizon Specific Plan: hilltophorizon.com (checked September 24, 2026)