Photo above: Aerial view looking northwest over Moraga, Lafayette and Orinda in Contra Costa County, California, through clouds, March 2022. Famartin, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
No one can tell you, and we won’t pretend to. What we can show you: Moraga’s median sale price was $1,750,092 in August 2026, up 19.9% from a year earlier on just 45 sales (Redfin, Moraga housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026), while the best-known statewide forecast expected a 3.6% gain for all of 2026 and is running well behind that.
Below is what the named forecasters said, what has actually happened, and the signals you can watch for Moraga yourself.
What have Moraga prices done in the last year?
Up sharply on the headline number. Redfin’s August 2026 figures for Moraga, all home types (Redfin, Moraga housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026):
| Measure | August 2026 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,750,092 |
| Change from a year earlier | up 19.9% |
| Homes sold | 45 |
| Median days on market | 14 |
| Sale price vs. list price | 101.1% |
| Sold above list | 50.1% |
| Listings with a price drop | 26.5% |
| Price per square foot | $790 |
Our read, not Redfin’s: 45 sales is a small month. If more larger homes happened to close this August than last, the median jumps even when a given house didn’t gain 19.9%. So treat the percentage as a snapshot of which homes sold, and price one house against recent sales of homes like it on nearby streets.
What does the main California forecast say?
It covers the whole state, not Moraga. On September 17, 2025, C.A.R. (the state’s real estate trade association) forecast the California median home price rising 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, existing single-family sales rising 2% to 274,400, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.0%. It also expected housing affordability to inch up to 18% (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, September 17, 2025, checked September 25, 2026).
C.A.R.’s chief economist listed risks in the same release, including trade tensions, a possible stock market bubble and the home insurance crisis. That last one matters in Moraga, where fire hazard zones are a live question for buyers.
As of September 25, 2026, C.A.R.’s 2026 news release list shows no 2027 forecast yet. We did not find a named, dated price forecast for Moraga alone, so there isn’t one on this page.
How is that forecast holding up?
Behind on price, and off on rates. C.A.R.’s August 2026 report puts the statewide median at $901,420, up only 0.1% from August 2025. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.67% in August and passed 7.0% in the second week of September, citing Mortgage News Daily, well above the 6.0% the forecast assumed (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026, checked September 25, 2026).
That’s the honest lesson about forecasts. One assumption moved, and the year looks different. Moraga’s own 19.9% jump shows the other side: a small town’s numbers can swing far from any statewide call, in either direction.
What is the county market doing?
Slowing a little into fall. For existing single-family homes in Contra Costa County, C.A.R. reports a median of 20 days on market in August 2026, up from 15 in July and down from 21 in August 2025. The unsold inventory index, the months it would take to sell every listing at the current pace, was 2.7 months in August 2026, against 2.6 in July and 3.1 a year earlier (C.A.R., August 2026 report).
C.A.R. also notes that prices typically ease in fall and winter. That’s a seasonal pattern, not a promise for any one Moraga street.
What should I watch to judge Moraga prices myself?
Four signals, all public:
- Price cuts. 26.5% of Moraga listings had a price drop in August 2026 (Redfin). If that share climbs, sellers are chasing buyers.
- Days on market. A 14-day median means homes are moving fast. Watch whether it stretches out this fall.
- Mortgage rates. Rates above 7.0% in September shrink what a buyer can borrow on the same payment (C.A.R., September 16, 2026). Get your own quote from a lender.
- Insurance. Ask a licensed insurance agent what coverage costs on the specific address before you count on a budget.
Should I wait to buy or sell in Moraga?
Only you can decide that, and timing the market is a guess for everyone. Waiting to buy helps if prices dip and hurts if prices or rates climb. Waiting to sell is the same bet in reverse, plus more months of payments and upkeep.
Better questions: If you’re buying, can you carry this payment and be fine if the value goes flat for a few years? If you’re selling, what would your house bring this month, based on real recent sales? Those have answers.
Questions people also ask
Are Moraga home prices going up?
The August 2026 median was $1,750,092, up 19.9% from a year earlier, per Redfin’s Moraga page, checked September 24, 2026. That was on only 45 sales, so the mix of homes that closed can move the number a lot. Look at recent sales of homes like yours on nearby streets before deciding what the jump means for one house.
What does C.A.R. forecast for California home prices in 2026?
C.A.R.’s forecast, released September 17, 2025, called for the California median to rise 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, with 30-year rates averaging 6.0%. Its August 2026 report showed the statewide median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from a year earlier, and rates above 7.0% by mid September. It is a statewide forecast, not a Moraga one.
Is there a housing forecast just for Moraga?
We did not find a named, dated price forecast for Moraga alone as of September 25, 2026. With about 45 sales in a month, any local forecast would be shaky. Watch the actual numbers instead: the median, days on market and the share of listings with price cuts, all on Redfin’s Moraga housing market page.
Do higher mortgage rates lower home prices in Moraga?
Higher rates raise the monthly payment on the same price, which limits what buyers can offer. C.A.R. reported 30-year fixed rates averaging 6.67% in August 2026 and passing 7.0% in the second week of September. How much that moves Moraga prices is unknown ahead of time. Get a rate quote from a lender before you set a budget.
Your next step
Forget the forecast for a minute. Want to know what your house, or the one you’re watching, would sell for right now? Talk to a Moraga agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525, and we’ll walk you through the recent sales behind the number.
More on Moraga: Moraga market update · Is Moraga a good place to live? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Moraga, CA. Updated September 25, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, Moraga housing market page, August 2026: redfin.com/city/12596/CA/Moraga/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
- C.A.R. news release, “C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” September 17, 2025: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R. news release, August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026, including the county unsold inventory and days on market table: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R. 2026 news releases list: car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases (checked September 25, 2026)