Photo above: Capitol Corridor train at Fairfield-Vacaville Hannigan Station, Fairfield, California, November 2017. Pi.1415926535, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Nobody can tell you for sure, and we won’t pretend to. What the record shows: Fairfield’s August median sale price has stayed between about $599K and $625K every year since 2022, and it was down 3.2% in August 2026 from a year earlier (Redfin, Fairfield housing market page, checked September 24, 2026).

So prices have dipped, not crashed. Here’s the long view, what the forecasters said, and what to watch.

What has actually happened to Fairfield prices?

A flat band for five years, with seasonal ups and downs inside it. These are Redfin’s all-types medians for Fairfield for the same month each year (Redfin, Fairfield housing market page, checked September 24, 2026):

Month	Median sale price
August 2022	$600,000
August 2023	$625,000
August 2024	$620,000
August 2025	$619,500
August 2026	$599,603

The highest monthly median in that stretch was $650,000 in May 2022. The lowest was $570,000 in February 2026. Every month since September 2021 has landed between those two.

That tells you two things. Prices haven’t run away. And they haven’t fallen apart. If you bought in the last few years, the city median is close to where it was.

What did the forecasters say about 2026?

The big statewide forecast was for a small gain. It hasn’t played out that way so far.

• C.A.R. forecast, released September 17, 2025: California’s median home price would rise 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate would average 6.0% (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast).
• What happened by August 2026: C.A.R. reported a statewide median of $901,420 for existing single-family homes, up just 0.1% from a year earlier. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.67% in August (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026).

C.A.R. is the statewide real estate trade association. Its forecast is for California as a whole, not Fairfield. We’re showing it next to the result for one reason: forecasts are often wrong, even the careful ones. The rate call was off by more than half a point, and that alone changes what buyers can pay.

Are Solano County prices dropping too?

The county number was down more than Fairfield’s in August. C.A.R. reported a Solano County median of $575,000 for existing single-family homes in August 2026, down 7.3% from $620,000 a year earlier. Sales were up 12.5% from a year earlier, and the median home took 40 days to sell (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, checked September 24, 2026).

That’s a different source and a different mix of homes than Redfin’s Fairfield number, so don’t compare them dollar for dollar. Both point the same way for August: softer prices than last year, with more homes changing hands.

What signals should I watch to see where prices are heading?

Watch the numbers that move before prices do. All four below are on Redfin’s Fairfield page and update monthly.

1. Price drops. In August 2026, 32.7% of Fairfield homes had a price cut before selling, down from 38.7% in August 2025. In April 2026 it was 22.0%. Rising cuts mean sellers are chasing buyers.
2. Days on market. The median was 36 days in August 2026, down from 48 a year earlier. This past winter ran 54 to 60 days, from December 2025 through February 2026. Longer waits give buyers more room to negotiate.
3. Sales volume. 253 homes sold in August 2026, up from 204. More sales at steady prices is a sign of a working market, not a falling one.
4. Sale-to-list price. 99.3% in August 2026. When that slips toward 98%, buyers are negotiating harder.

Then watch mortgage rates. They set what a buyer’s monthly budget can reach, which caps what buyers can offer.

Will new homes in Fairfield push prices down?

They add supply, and that’s worth watching, but nobody can say how much they move resale prices. The city’s Train Station Specific Plan covers almost 3,000 acres in northeast Fairfield around the Capitol Corridor station at Peabody Road and Vanden Road. The City Council adopted it on July 26, 2011 (City of Fairfield, Train Station Specific Plan page, checked September 24, 2026).

Inside that area, One Lake lists seven neighborhoods now selling from Tri Pointe, Lennar, Century Communities, K. Hovnanian and KB Home, with home sizes from about 2,009 to 3,517 square feet (One Lake, onelake.com, checked September 24, 2026). If you own a newer two-story in that size range nearby, new-home incentives are your real competition. Check what builders are offering before you set a price.

Should I wait to buy or sell until prices drop?

Waiting is a bet, not a plan. The last five years say Fairfield prices move inside a band, and the forecasts say nobody knows exactly where the next month lands.

Make the call on your own numbers. Buyers: the payment you can carry, and how long you plan to stay. Sellers: what you need to net, and when you need to move. Then look at recent sales of homes like yours, not the headline.

Questions people also ask

Is the Fairfield housing market going to crash?

We don’t predict prices, and nobody can promise a direction. The record is steadier than the headlines. Redfin’s August median for Fairfield was $600,000 in 2022, $625,000 in 2023, $620,000 in 2024, $619,500 in 2025 and $599,603 in 2026. That’s a dip of 3.2% this year, not a collapse. Watch price cuts and days on market for early signs of change.

What is the C.A.R. forecast for 2026?

C.A.R. forecast on September 17, 2025 that California’s median home price would rise 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, with 30-year mortgage rates averaging 6.0%. By August 2026, C.A.R. reported a statewide median of $901,420, up 0.1% from a year earlier, and rates averaging 6.67%. It’s a statewide forecast, not a Fairfield one.

Are Fairfield home prices down from last year?

Yes, slightly. Redfin reports a Fairfield median of $599,603 in August 2026, down 3.2% from August 2025. Single-family homes were down 2.9%. Price per square foot was down 0.62% over the three months ending August 2026. More homes sold than a year ago, 253 versus 204, and the median home sold in 36 days instead of 48.

When will C.A.R. release its 2027 forecast?

C.A.R. released its 2026 forecast on September 17, 2025, and had not posted a 2027 forecast on its news releases page when we checked on September 24, 2026. When it comes out, read it for what it is: one group’s best guess for the whole state. Compare it with Fairfield’s own monthly numbers before you act on it.

Your next step

Trying to decide whether to move now or wait? Let’s look at your home, or the home you want, against real recent sales. Talk to a Fairfield agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.

More on Fairfield: How much does a house cost in Fairfield right now? · Is Fairfield a good place to live? · When is the best time to sell in Fairfield? · What’s my home worth?

By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Fairfield, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.

Sources

• Redfin, Fairfield, CA housing market page: monthly median sale price September 2021 through August 2026, homes sold, median days on market, sale-to-list price and homes with price drops, from the page’s charts: redfin.com/city/5980/CA/Fairfield/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
• C.A.R., the statewide real estate trade association, “C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” September 17, 2025: car.org (checked September 24, 2026)
• C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, released September 16, 2026, including the Solano County table (existing single-family homes): car.org (checked September 24, 2026)
• City of Fairfield, Train Station Specific Plan page: fairfield.ca.gov (checked September 24, 2026)
• One Lake, neighborhoods now selling: onelake.com (checked September 24, 2026)