Photo above: The brick San Ramon Library building on Montgomery Street in San Ramon, California, December 2007. ShakataGaNai, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Nobody knows, and you should be wary of anyone who says they do. What we can show you: San Ramon’s median sale price was $1,516,496 in August 2026, up 1.1% from a year earlier (Redfin, San Ramon housing market page, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026), while the big 2026 forecasts called for gains of 2.3% to 3.6%.
We don’t add a guess of our own. Here is what named forecasters said, how it is playing out, and the signals you can track yourself.
What have San Ramon prices actually done?
Up a little over the year. Redfin shows the August 2026 median at $1,516,496, 1.1% higher than August 2025, with 164 homes sold and a median of 22 days on market (Redfin, August 2026, checked September 24, 2026).
One month is a snapshot. The median also shifts with the mix of condos, townhomes and houses that happened to close. Treat 1.1% as roughly flat, not as a trend line.
What did the forecasters say for 2026?
Modest gains. We found no forecast for San Ramon alone, so these cover the state and the country.
| Forecaster | Published | Price call | 30-year rate assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.A.R., California median price | September 17, 2025 | Up 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026 | 6.0% average in 2026 |
| Fannie Mae, U.S. home price index | September 11, 2026 | Up 2.3% in 2026, up 1.0% in 2027 | 6.5% average in 2026, 6.7% in 2027 |
Sources: C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, September 17, 2025, and Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast, September 11, 2026 (both checked September 25, 2026). The two measure different things: C.A.R. forecasts a statewide median sale price, and Fannie Mae forecasts a national index measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter. As of September 25, 2026, C.A.R.’s news releases list no 2027 forecast.
Are those forecasts coming true?
The California forecast is running behind. C.A.R.’s August 2026 report puts the statewide median at $901,420, up just 0.1% from August 2025, and says the San Francisco Bay Area median slipped 0.2% (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026). Fannie Mae’s newest national call, published in September 2026, expects slower growth in 2027 (1.0%) than in 2026 (2.3%).
C.A.R.’s rate assumption missed too. Thirty-year fixed rates averaged 6.67% in August 2026 and surpassed 7.0% in the second week of September, per the same C.A.R. report citing Mortgage News Daily. Forecasts are often wrong. When one input moves, the whole picture moves with it.
What could push San Ramon prices down?
Watch these. You can check each one yourself.
- Mortgage rates. A higher rate means a bigger payment on the same price, so buyers can pay less. Rates surpassed 7.0% in the second week of September 2026 (C.A.R., September 16, 2026).
- Price cuts. 35.1% of San Ramon homes had a price drop before selling in August 2026 (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). If that share climbs, sellers are chasing the market.
- The season. C.A.R. notes prices typically ease in fall and winter (C.A.R., September 16, 2026).
- New supply. The city approved up to 2,510 homes at The Orchards, the former Chevron Park site, to be built over 20 years (City of San Ramon, “The Orchards: Appeal Denied,” April 2026). How that plays out for nearby values is unknown. Nobody can tell you ahead of time.
What is holding San Ramon prices up?
Buyers are still paying close to asking. In August 2026, San Ramon homes sold at 99.5% of list price on average and 39.4% sold above list, with a median of 22 days on market (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026).
Whether that continues depends on rates, jobs and how many homes come up for sale. We’d rather show you the numbers each month than promise a direction.
Should I wait to buy or sell in San Ramon?
Only you can decide that, and nobody can time it for you. Waiting to buy saves money if prices dip and costs money if prices or rates rise. Waiting to sell cuts the other way.
Better questions. If you’re buying: can you carry this payment today and be fine if the value stays flat for five years? A lender can run that. If you’re selling: what would your home bring this month, based on real sales of homes like it? We can pull that.
Questions people also ask
Are San Ramon home prices going down?
Not on the latest numbers. San Ramon’s median sale price was $1,516,496 in August 2026, up 1.1% from a year earlier, per Redfin, checked September 24, 2026. At the same time, 35.1% of homes had a price cut before selling. One month’s median also moves with the mix of homes sold, so check sales of your own home type.
What does C.A.R. forecast for California home prices in 2026?
C.A.R.’s forecast, released September 17, 2025, called for the California median to rise 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, with 30-year rates averaging 6.0%. Its August 2026 report showed the statewide median at $901,420, up 0.1% from a year earlier, and rates above 7.0% by mid September. C.A.R. had not published a 2027 forecast as of September 25, 2026.
Is there a housing forecast just for San Ramon?
We did not find a named, dated forecast from a recognized source for San Ramon alone as of September 25, 2026. The main forecasts cover California or the whole country. The most useful local signals are the monthly median, the share of homes with price cuts, and days on market, all on Redfin’s San Ramon page.
Will The Orchards lower home values in San Ramon?
No one can know that yet. The city approved up to 2,510 homes on the former Chevron Park site, built over about 20 years, and the City Council denied an appeal on April 7, 2026. Its effect on nearby prices will depend on timing, what gets built and the wider market. Follow the city’s project page for updates.
Your next step
Set the forecasts aside for a minute. Want to know what your home, or the one you’re eyeing, would sell for this month? Talk to a San Ramon agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525. We’ll show you the sales behind the number.
More on San Ramon: How much a house costs in San Ramon right now · Is San Ramon a good place to live? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, San Ramon, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, San Ramon housing market page, August 2026: redfin.com/city/17519/CA/San-Ramon/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
- C.A.R. news release, “C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” September 17, 2025: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- C.A.R. news release, August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026: car.org (checked September 25, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast, September 11, 2026: fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast (checked September 25, 2026)
- City of San Ramon, “The Orchards: Appeal Denied at April 7 City Council Meeting”: sanramon.ca.gov/news (checked September 25, 2026)