Nobody can say, and be wary of anyone who sounds sure. Zillow’s newest forecast, from a September 30, 2026 starting point, has home values in Martinez’s 94553 ZIP code rising 0.9% by September 2027, while the Martinez median sale price is already up 5.1% from a year ago (Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast, downloaded November 9, 2026; Redfin, Martinez housing market page, September 2026, checked November 9, 2026).
A 0.9% forecast is close to no change at all. Here’s the record, the named forecasts and their dates, and how last year’s forecast turned out.
Where are Martinez prices right now?
Up on the headline number, with fewer price cuts. The median Martinez home sold for $819,610 in September 2026, up 5.1% from September 2025. Martinez closed 89 sales, 9.72% fewer than a year earlier. The median home took 26 days to sell, 4 days longer than a year before, and sold at 101.0% of list. 42.1% sold above asking, and 30.4% of listings had a price drop, down 5.4 points (Redfin, Martinez housing market page, September 2026, checked November 9, 2026).
By home type, September medians were $874,651 for single-family homes (up 3.9%), $667,508 for townhouses (up 2.7%) and $463,952 for condos (up 19.0%, on just 8 sales) (Redfin, Martinez housing market page, home type filter, September 2026, checked November 9, 2026). Small counts swing hard, so don’t read the condo jump as a trend.
The longer view matters too. Redfin’s monthly Martinez median peaked at $915,000 in May 2022 (Redfin, Martinez housing market page, monthly history, checked September 24, 2026). September’s figure is still about 10% under that.
What does Zillow forecast for 94553?
Small gains over the next year. Zillow’s Home Value Forecast starts from September 30, 2026 values (Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast by ZIP and metro, downloaded November 9, 2026):
| Area | By Oct. 31, 2026 | By Dec. 31, 2026 | By Sept. 30, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZIP 94553 | up 0.2% | up 0.3% | up 0.9% |
| San Francisco metro | up 0.4% | up 0.5% | up 1.9% |
The 94553 ZIP reaches past city limits into unincorporated land around Martinez, so it is not a city-only number. And Zillow forecasts its own estimate of a typical home’s value, not sale prices.
What does C.A.R. forecast for 2027?
A small statewide rise. C.A.R., California’s statewide real estate trade association, released its 2027 California Housing Market Forecast on October 7, 2026. It calls for a $894,400 state median in 2027, up 1.4%, existing single-family sales of 277,900, up 3.7%, and a 6.6% average 30-year fixed rate (C.A.R., 2027 California Housing Market Forecast, October 7, 2026, checked November 9, 2026).
C.A.R. does not publish a forecast for Martinez. Its statewide median sits above the Martinez median, and the two can move apart.
What does Fannie Mae forecast?
Slower national price growth in 2027. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, in its October 2026 Housing Forecast dated October 12, 2026, projects its national home price index up 2.7% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter. It projects the 30-year rate averaging 6.7% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027 (Fannie Mae, Housing Forecast: October 2026, checked November 9, 2026).
That covers the whole country. It says nothing about Martinez on its own.
How did last year’s forecast do?
It missed, as forecasts often do. On September 17, 2025, C.A.R. forecast a 3.6% rise in the California median to $905,000 for 2026, with mortgage rates averaging 6.0% (C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast). In its new forecast, C.A.R. now puts 2026 at $882,200, up 0.8%, with rates at 6.6% (C.A.R., October 7, 2026). Its September 2026 report showed the state median at $899,720, up 1.7% from a year earlier, with the 30-year rate averaging 6.86% per Freddie Mac (C.A.R., September 2026 home sales and price report, October 19, 2026).
Martinez went its own way. Its median rose 5.1% over the same stretch, per Redfin. Zillow’s own outlook also shifts month to month: a month earlier, from an August 31 base, it had 94553 up 0.8% by August 2027 (Zillow Research, checked September 24, 2026). No one has a reliable crystal ball. Treat every number on this page as a guess made on a certain day.
What should I watch in Martinez?
These are public, and you can check them yourself.
- Mortgage rates. C.A.R. projects 6.6% for 2027. Fannie Mae projects 7.5%. That gap alone shows how unsure everyone is.
- The county. Contra Costa’s single-family median was $870,000 in September 2026, up 0.1% from a year earlier, with sales down 5.7% (C.A.R., October 19, 2026).
- Days on market. Martinez homes took 26 days in September, up 4 from a year earlier (Redfin, checked November 9, 2026). Longer waits usually mean more room to negotiate.
- The refinery. PBF Energy says its Martinez refinery returned to full operations in May 2026 (PBF Energy, third quarter 2026 results release, October 29, 2026). What that means for any one street’s prices, nobody can say. Our refinery page walks through the official sources.
Should I wait to buy or sell?
Go by your own plans, not a forecast. Buying: does the payment work today, and could you live with a flat value for a few years? A lender can run that for you. Selling: what did homes like yours on nearby streets close for in the last 90 days? That number is real.
Questions people also ask
Will Martinez home prices go up in 2027?
No one knows. Zillow’s forecast from September 30, 2026 has ZIP 94553 up 0.9% by September 2027, which is about flat. C.A.R.’s October 7, 2026 forecast calls for the state median up 1.4% in 2027 but does not cover Martinez. Use recent sales near you, not a forecast, to set a price or an offer.
Are Martinez home prices going down?
Not on the latest data. Redfin shows the Martinez median at $819,610 in September 2026, up 5.1% from a year earlier, checked November 9, 2026. Price cuts were less common too, at 30.4% of listings. The median is still about 10% below its May 2022 peak of $915,000, per Redfin’s monthly history.
How far off was C.A.R.’s 2026 forecast?
In September 2025, C.A.R. called for the state median to rise 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026 with 6.0% rates. Its October 7, 2026 forecast revised that to 0.8% and $882,200, with 6.6% rates. Its September 2026 report had the state median up 1.7% from a year earlier. C.A.R. does not forecast Martinez.
Do mortgage rates move Martinez prices?
Often, because rates set the payment. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.86% in September 2026, per Freddie Mac data in C.A.R.’s October 19, 2026 report. For 2027, C.A.R. projects 6.6% and Fannie Mae 7.5%. Your own rate comes from a lender, so get a quote before you set a budget.
Your next step
Set the forecasts aside. Send us the Martinez address you care about, and we’ll pull what homes like it actually sold for this fall. Talk to a Martinez agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525.
More on Martinez: What a house costs in Martinez right now · Is Martinez a good place to live? · What’s my home worth?
By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Martinez, CA. Updated November 9, 2026.
Sources
- Redfin, Martinez housing market page, September 2026 (all homes and home type filter), checked November 9, 2026; monthly history read September 24, 2026: https://www.redfin.com/city/11767/CA/Martinez/housing-market
- Zillow Research, Home Value Forecast by ZIP and metro, base date September 30, 2026 (downloaded November 9, 2026): https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvf_growth/Zip_zhvf_growth_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv and https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvf_growth/Metro_zhvf_growth_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv
- C.A.R., 2027 California Housing Market Forecast, October 7, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/2027housingforecast (checked November 9, 2026)
- C.A.R., 2026 California Housing Market Forecast, September 17, 2025: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2025releases/2026forecast
- C.A.R., September 2026 home sales and price report, October 19, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/sept2026sales (checked November 9, 2026)
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group, Housing Forecast: October 2026, dated October 12, 2026: https://www.fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast (checked November 9, 2026)
- PBF Energy, third quarter 2026 results release, October 29, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001534504/000153450426000039/a991pressreleaseq3-26.htm (checked November 9, 2026)