Nobody knows, and anyone who tells you for sure is guessing. What we do know: Pinole’s median sale price was $719,524 in August 2026, up 7.4% from a year earlier but still about 14% below its May 2022 high, and the published forecasts call for roughly flat to small gains, not a drop (Redfin; Zillow; C.A.R.).

So yes, Pinole prices can fall. They already did once in the last four years. Here is the record and what the forecasters actually said, with dates.

Have Pinole home prices gone down before?

Yes, recently. Redfin’s monthly median sale price for Pinole hit $837,000 in May 2022. By August 2025 it was $670,000. In August 2026 it was $719,524 (Redfin, Pinole housing market page, monthly history, checked September 24, 2026).

Are Pinole prices going up or down right now?

Up on the headline number, flat underneath it. Redfin’s median sale price is up 7.4% from August 2025, but Redfin’s median price per square foot, $447, was down 0.11% over the same year (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026).

Why the gap? The median is the middle price of the homes that happened to sell that month, 40 of them in August 2026. When bigger homes make up more of the sales, the median rises even if each home is worth about the same. Flat price per square foot says that is likely part of what happened.

What do the forecasts say for Pinole?

Small moves either way, not a crash or a boom.

  • Zillow Home Value Forecast, ZIP 94564 (Pinole). Based on August 31, 2026 data, Zillow forecasts the typical home value up 0.5% by September 30, 2026, up 1.0% by November 30, 2026, and up 0.9% by August 31, 2027 (Zillow Research, checked September 24, 2026).
  • Zillow, San Francisco metro. Same base date: up 0.4%, 0.9% and 1.4% for the same three points (Zillow Research, checked September 24, 2026).
  • C.A.R. 2026 California forecast. On September 17, 2025, C.A.R., the statewide real estate trade association, forecast the California median price rising 3.6% to $905,000 in 2026, assuming a 6.0% average 30-year mortgage rate (C.A.R., September 17, 2025). C.A.R. has not published a 2027 forecast as of September 24, 2026.

A forecast under 1% is close enough to zero that a normal miss puts it on either side.

How accurate have the forecasts been?

Mixed, and that is normal. C.A.R. assumed a 6.0% mortgage rate for 2026. Its own August 2026 report says 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.67% in August, based on Freddie Mac data, and passed 7.0% in the second week of September, citing Mortgage News Daily. The statewide median in August 2026 was $901,420, almost the same as $900,620 a year earlier (C.A.R., August 2026 home sales report, September 16, 2026). The full-year number is not in yet, but so far the state is running flatter than the 3.6% rise C.A.R. forecast.

That same C.A.R. report says home prices “may face additional downward pressure through the end of the year.” Treat every forecast, including that one, as a best guess on the day it was written.

What could push Pinole prices down?

Watch these, all things you can check yourself:

  • Mortgage rates. Higher rates shrink what buyers can pay each month. Rates passed 7.0% in September 2026 (C.A.R., citing Mortgage News Daily, September 16, 2026).
  • New supply. Pinole Vista at 1500 Fitzgerald Drive is in construction plan check on the old Kmart site, approved as 223 apartments, and Appian Village at 2151 Appian Way, 154 units, is nearing completion (City of Pinole, Projects page, checked September 24, 2026; Administrative Report, October 21, 2022). New units add choices for buyers and renters nearby.
  • Costs of owning. Pinole’s sales tax is 10.25%, tied for the highest in Contra Costa County (CDTFA, rate table effective July 1, 2026), and a regional transit sales tax is on the November 3, 2026 ballot (MTC). Ask a tax professional how any tax change affects you.
  • Seasonal slowdown. C.A.R. notes prices typically ease in fall and winter (C.A.R., September 16, 2026).

What is holding Pinole prices up?

Competition, for now. In August 2026, 61.6% of Pinole homes sold above list price, median days on market fell to 23 from 31, and Redfin rated the market 85 out of 100, “Very Competitive” (Redfin, checked September 24, 2026). Our separate answer on what a house costs in Pinole right now has the full August breakdown.

Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?

That is your call, and no one can time it for you. Waiting can save money if prices fall, and cost money if prices or rates rise. A more useful question: can you afford the payment on this home today, and would you be fine owning it for years if values stayed flat? Talk to a lender about your numbers before you decide.

Questions people also ask

Are Pinole home prices dropping?

Not on Redfin’s latest numbers. The Pinole median sale price was $719,524 in August 2026, up 7.4% from a year earlier, though the median price per square foot, $447, was down 0.11%, per Redfin’s Pinole page checked September 24, 2026. The median is still about 14% below its May 2022 high of $837,000.

What is Zillow’s forecast for Pinole home values?

Zillow’s Home Value Forecast for ZIP 94564, based on August 31, 2026 data, calls for the typical home value to rise 0.5% by September 30, 2026, 1.0% by November 30, 2026, and 0.9% by August 31, 2027, per Zillow Research, checked September 24, 2026. Forecasts this small can easily miss in either direction.

When did Pinole home prices peak?

On Redfin’s monthly data, the Pinole median sale price peaked at $837,000 in May 2022. It fell to $670,000 by August 2025 and was $719,524 in August 2026, still about 14% below that high, per Redfin’s Pinole page checked September 24, 2026. Monthly medians in a small city move around, so look at several months.

Will mortgage rates affect Pinole prices?

They often do, because rates set what buyers can pay each month. C.A.R.’s September 16, 2026 report says 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.67% in August 2026, based on Freddie Mac data, and passed 7.0% in September, citing Mortgage News Daily. It warns demand could soften this fall. Talk to a lender for a rate on your own loan.

Your next step

Want to know what your home, or the one you like, would sell for today, not in a forecast? Talk to a Pinole agent on our team or call (510) 949-5525. We’ll pull the closest recent sales and show you the trend on that street.

More on Pinole: Pinole home prices right now · Is Pinole a good place to live? · What’s my home worth?

By Bill Davis, DRE #01880656, The Davis Team at eXp Realty, Pinole, CA. Updated September 24, 2026.

Sources

  • Redfin, Pinole housing market page, August 2026 data and monthly median sale price history: redfin.com/city/14852/CA/Pinole/housing-market (checked September 24, 2026)
  • Zillow Research, Zillow Home Value Forecast for ZIP 94564 and the San Francisco metro, base date August 31, 2026: zillow.com/research/data (checked September 24, 2026)
  • C.A.R. (the statewide real estate trade association), “C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast,” September 17, 2025: car.org
  • C.A.R., August 2026 home sales and price report, September 16, 2026: car.org (checked September 24, 2026)
  • City of Pinole, Projects page: pinole.gov/projects (checked September 24, 2026); Administrative Report, October 21, 2022
  • California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA), sales tax rates effective July 1, 2026: cdtfa.ca.gov (checked September 24, 2026)
  • MTC (Bay Area regional transportation agency), regional transportation revenue measure: mtc.ca.gov (checked September 24, 2026)